Lithium Argentina Puts $3.1 Billion NPV on Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 2

Lithium Argentina AG (TSX: LAR) (NYSE: LAR) reported a scoping study for the Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 2 expansion in Jujuy Province, Argentina, outlining an additional 45,000 tonnes per annum of lithium carbonate with an after-tax NPV (8%) of $3.1 billion and a 28.5% IRR at an $18,000 per tonne price assumption, while accelerating an initial 10,000 tpa phase using adsorption Direct Lithium Extraction.

Lithium Argentina AG (NYSE: LAR) has put numbers on the next chapter of its flagship Argentine brine operation. The company released the results of a scoping study for the Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 2 Expansion Project in Jujuy Province, Argentina, describing a brownfield build designed to add 45,000 tonnes per annum of lithium carbonate on top of existing production at the site.

The study carries an after-tax net present value at an 8% discount rate of $3.1 billion and an internal rate of return of 28.5%, using a lithium carbonate price assumption of $18,000 per tonne. Alongside the study, the company said it is moving to accelerate an initial 10,000 tpa module — the first slice of the 45,000 tpa expansion — using adsorption Direct Lithium Extraction technology, subject to regulatory approvals and permits, including those tied to procuring and deploying the relevant technology and equipment.

What a brownfield expansion buys that a new project does not

The word doing the heavy lifting in the announcement is "brownfield." Cauchari-Olaroz is an operating asset: the brine field, the evaporation infrastructure, the roads, the power, the camp and the permitting relationship with Jujuy Province already exist. An expansion bolted onto that base avoids much of the capital and calendar risk that sinks greenfield lithium developments, where a decade can pass between a resource statement and first product.

That is the context for a 28.5% internal rate of return — the annualised return the project would generate at the modelled price — and a $3.1 billion after-tax NPV. A scoping study sits at the early, least precise end of the engineering spectrum, and its capital and operating estimates carry wide error bars by design. It is a decision-making document about whether to spend money on more detailed study work, not a construction budget. Investors should read the headline economics as an argument for continuing, not a commitment to build.

The $18,000 per tonne question

Every figure in the study hangs off the lithium carbonate price assumption of $18,000 per tonne. That is the single most consequential input in any brine economics model, and it is the one the company controls least. Lithium carbonate has spent an extended stretch well below the euphoric levels that drew capital into the sector, and the gap between a spot price and a long-run planning price is where scoping studies live or die.

What matters more than the assumed price is where the project sits on the global cost curve. Argentine brine operations in the Lithium Triangle have historically been among the lower-cost sources of lithium chemicals because the raw material arrives in solution rather than in rock that has to be mined, crushed and converted. An expansion that reuses existing infrastructure should, in principle, sit lower still. The scoping study's return profile is the company's case that Stage 2 clears its hurdle even in a market that has punished higher-cost producers.

The full release and study parameters were published via INN Lithium.

Why the 10,000 tpa DLE module is the real news

The scoping study describes the destination. The initial phase describes how the company intends to get there without betting the balance sheet on a single step. By carving out a 10,000 tpa module — illustratively a little under a quarter of the 45,000 tpa total, leaving roughly 35,000 tpa to follow in later phases — Lithium Argentina gets three things at once.

• Earlier cash flow. A smaller module can be procured, built and commissioned faster than a full-scale plant, pulling incremental tonnes forward in time.
• A commercial-scale proof point for adsorption DLE. Direct Lithium Extraction pulls lithium from brine using a sorbent rather than relying solely on solar evaporation ponds. It promises higher recovery, a far smaller physical and water footprint and much shorter processing cycles — but the technology's track record at commercial scale is the sector's most-debated variable. A working module de-risks the remaining capacity.
• Optionality. Phasing lets management stage capital against permitting milestones and the lithium price rather than committing to the whole expansion at one point in the cycle.

The trade-off is that the company has explicitly flagged the initial phase as conditional on regulatory approvals and permits — including those required for procuring and deploying certain technology and equipment. That last clause is a reminder that DLE sorbent supply chains and specialised process equipment can carry their own approval and sourcing constraints, separate from the environmental and provincial permitting any Argentine lithium project must clear.

Where the shares stand

Lithium Argentina trades on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol LAR. Shares last changed hands at 5.50 in the listing currency quoted, up 0.18% on the day from a prior close of 5.49, within a day range of 5.49 to 5.67, as of 20:00 GMT on 30 September 2026.

That was a quieter session than the news might suggest, and it came against mixed broad-market tape: the S&P 500 proxy SPY closed at $762.63, down 0.21%, the Nasdaq 100 proxy QQQ closed at $739.77, up 0.25%, and the Dow proxy DIA closed at $508.55, down 0.84%. Scoping study economics rarely move a developer's share price on the day they land, because the market discounts early-stage engineering numbers heavily until capital costs firm up in a pre-feasibility or feasibility study.

The milestones that will actually matter

Three things will determine whether the $3.1 billion figure survives contact with reality. First, permitting: whether the approvals for the initial phase, including the technology and equipment provisions, arrive on the timeline management is working toward. Second, DLE performance: recovery rates, sorbent life and operating cost from the initial module, measured at commercial scale rather than in pilot conditions. Third, price: whether lithium carbonate realisations move toward, above or persistently below the $18,000 per tonne planning assumption over the period in which the phased capacity would come online.

Beyond the company, the module is a live data point for the entire brine sector. If adsorption DLE performs commercially in Jujuy, it shortens the path for every other Lithium Triangle operator weighing whether to expand with ponds or with sorbent.

Key facts

• Stock (NYSE/TSX: LAR): 5.50, +0.18%, as of 20:00 GMT, 30 Sep 2026 (last close)
• Stage 2 added capacity: 45,000 tpa of lithium carbonate
• Study economics: After-tax NPV (8%) of $3.1 billion; IRR 28.5%
• Price assumption: $18,000 per tonne lithium carbonate

Frequently asked questions

What did Lithium Argentina announce?

Lithium Argentina AG, listed on both the TSX and NYSE under LAR, released scoping study results for the Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 2 Expansion Project in Jujuy Province, Argentina. The study supports a brownfield expansion adding 45,000 tonnes per annum of lithium carbonate, with an after-tax NPV at an 8% discount rate of $3.1 billion and an internal rate of return of 28.5%.

What lithium price did the study assume?

The economics were modelled using a lithium carbonate price of $18,000 per tonne. That assumption drives both the $3.1 billion after-tax NPV and the 28.5% internal rate of return, so any material move in realised lithium carbonate prices away from that level would change the project's headline returns in either direction.

What is the 10,000 tpa initial phase?

It is the first module of the planned 45,000 tpa Stage 2 expansion, which the company is moving to accelerate using adsorption Direct Lithium Extraction technology. It is intended to bring incremental production forward, demonstrate DLE performance at commercial scale and support phased development. It remains subject to regulatory approvals and permits.

What is adsorption Direct Lithium Extraction?

DLE uses a sorbent material to capture lithium directly from brine rather than relying solely on large solar evaporation ponds. It generally promises higher lithium recovery, a much smaller land and water footprint and far shorter processing cycles. Its main open question is proven, sustained performance and cost at full commercial scale over time.

How reliable is a scoping study?

A scoping study is the earliest and least precise level of economic study in mining. Its capital and operating cost estimates carry wide tolerances and are meant to determine whether more detailed work is justified, not to serve as a construction budget. Figures typically change as a project advances to pre-feasibility and feasibility stages.

Where did LAR shares last close?

LAR last traded at 5.50 in its quoted listing currency, up 0.18% from a prior close of 5.49, with a day range of 5.49 to 5.67, as of 20:00 GMT on 30 September 2026. Benchmarks were mixed that session: SPY closed at $762.63 (-0.21%) and QQQ at $739.77 (+0.25%).

Sources

• Lithium Argentina Announces Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 2 Scoping Study Results and Acceleration of Initial Phase of 10,000 tpa — INN Lithium

Photo: Quangpraha · Pixabay Content License — source