Meridian Mining Says Cabaçal's Value More Than Doubles

Meridian Mining (TSX, LSE: MNO; US-OTC: MRRDF) said a new feasibility study more than doubled the estimated value of its Cabaçal gold-copper project in Brazil, a gain the company attributes to higher metal prices; the OTC line traded at 1.32, up 1.30%, as of 19:06 GMT on Sept. 22, 2026.

Meridian Mining (TSX, LSE: MNO; US-OTC: MRRDF) has more than doubled the estimated value of its Cabaçal gold-copper project in Brazil in a new feasibility study, and the company is clear about where the increase comes from: higher metal prices. The developer's US over-the-counter line was quoted at 1.32 as of 19:06 GMT on Sept. 22, 2026, up 1.30% on the day from a previous close of 1.30, having traded between 1.26 and 1.32.

That is a modest market reaction to a headline that, on its face, is dramatic. Doubling the estimated value of a single asset is the kind of revision that changes how a developer talks to banks, royalty buyers and potential partners. The restraint in the share price reflects what the study actually re-rates — the price deck, not the orebody.

Why a price deck can do the work of a discovery

A feasibility study is the most detailed engineering and economic document a mining company produces before it commits capital. It converts a resource in the ground into a mine plan with a schedule, a capital cost, an operating cost and a set of assumed metal prices, then discounts the resulting cash flows to a present value. Three of those four inputs are governed by rock and engineering. The fourth is a judgment call about markets.

Because mine cash flows are long-dated and margins are geared, small changes in the assumed price of gold or copper are amplified in the net present value. Revenue moves roughly with price; costs largely do not. The difference falls straight to the bottom line of every year in the model, then gets discounted and summed. That is the mechanism by which a project's stated value can double without a single new metre of drilling.

It is also the reason experienced readers of these documents go straight to the assumptions page. A study built on a price deck close to spot is a different animal from one built on long-run consensus, and the distinction matters most when metal prices have been running. Meridian has attributed the uplift at Cabaçal to higher prices, as The Northern Miner reported, which puts the price assumption at the centre of the story rather than at the margin of it.

What a gold-copper mix changes about the risk

Cabaçal is a gold-copper project, and polymetallic economics cut both ways. Two revenue streams reduce dependence on any single market: copper is levered to grid build-out, electrification and construction, while gold responds to rates, currency and risk appetite. Those drivers are not well correlated, which smooths the revenue line relative to a single-metal mine.

The offsetting point is that a two-metal model has two price assumptions to defend, and by-product credits are typically netted against operating costs in the headline figures a developer quotes. A project can look low-cost on a per-ounce basis largely because the copper is paying part of the bill. If either leg of the deck softens, the cost line moves as well as the revenue line.

For Cabaçal, the practical question is which metal drove the revision. A gold-led uplift is more exposed to macro sentiment; a copper-led one is more anchored to physical demand. Meridian has disclosed the direction of the change and its cause, not a split, and readers should treat the headline value as a function of the deck until the assumption table is examined line by line.

Financing, permitting and the credibility test

Where the higher number does real work is in the capital markets. A larger project value against an unchanged capital cost improves the arithmetic that lenders, streamers and equity investors apply. It widens the theoretical room for debt, reduces the share of the build that must be funded by issuing stock at a low price, and strengthens the developer's hand in negotiating any royalty or stream sold against future production. For a company whose OTC quote sits at 1.32, the cost of equity is the binding constraint on how a mine gets built, and anything that reduces reliance on dilution matters more than the headline value itself.

Lenders, however, do not use spot. Project finance is typically underwritten on a conservative internal price assumption, and a study built closer to current prices will be stress-tested downward before any credit committee signs off. The gap between a company's deck and a bank's deck is precisely where financing negotiations live. That is the test Cabaçal now faces.

Permitting runs on a separate clock. Brazilian environmental licensing is sequential and locally administered, and it responds to project footprint, water management and community agreements rather than to net present value. A higher valuation does not accelerate a licence, though it does make it easier to fund the studies, consultations and mitigation work that licensing demands, and it raises the cost of any delay.

Reading the tape against the broader market

The muted move in the shares came on a quiet session for the broad market. The S&P 500, via SPY, was at $773.89, up 0.05% from a prior close of $773.50 within a day range of $772.57 to $775.14. The Nasdaq 100 proxy QQQ was firmer at $746.46, up 0.67%, while the Dow 30 tracker DIA slipped 0.30% to $518.20. In other words, index-level direction explains very little of Meridian's day; the OTC line moved on its own news, and it moved gently.

That is not unusual for a study revision driven by assumptions. Markets tend to discount value that arrives through the price deck more heavily than value that arrives through better grade, lower strip or reduced capital intensity, because a deck can be revised back. Investors price the durability of the input, not just the size of the output.

What to look for next

Three things will determine whether the doubled valuation sticks. First, the assumption table: which gold and copper prices were used, and how far they sit from long-run consensus. Second, the capital cost and its contingency, since a study that raises value while holding capex flat invites scrutiny of inflation assumptions in a market where mine construction costs have been unforgiving. Third, evidence of third-party validation — a debt mandate, a stream agreement, or a strategic investor prepared to fund against the new numbers rather than argue with them.

Until those arrive, Cabaçal's re-rating is best read as what the company says it is: a project whose economics improved because the metal it will sell is worth more. That is a legitimate source of value. It is simply a different, and more reversible, source than the ones that come out of the ground.

Key facts

• Ticker and price: MRRDF (US-OTC) at 1.32, +1.30%, as of 19:06 GMT Sept. 22, 2026
• Listings: TSX and LSE as MNO; US-OTC as MRRDF
• Asset: Cabaçal gold-copper project, Brazil
• Driver of revision: New feasibility study; value more than doubled on higher metal prices

Frequently asked questions

What did Meridian Mining announce about Cabaçal?

Meridian Mining said a new feasibility study more than doubled the estimated value of its Cabaçal gold-copper project in Brazil. The company attributed the increase to higher metal prices rather than to changes in the orebody, mine plan or engineering. Meridian trades on the TSX and LSE as MNO and on the US over-the-counter market as MRRDF.

Where is the Cabaçal project located?

Cabaçal is in Brazil. It is a gold-copper project, meaning it is expected to produce two payable metals rather than one, which spreads revenue exposure across the gold market and the copper market but also means the economics depend on two separate price assumptions holding up.

How did the stock react?

The reaction was modest. Meridian's US over-the-counter quote, MRRDF, was 1.32 as of 19:06 GMT on Sept. 22, 2026, up 1.30% from a previous close of 1.30, with an intraday range of 1.26 to 1.32. Markets typically discount valuation gains that come from price assumptions more heavily than gains from better grade or lower capital cost.

Why can metal prices double a project's stated value?

Mine cash flows are long-dated and geared. Revenue rises with metal prices while most operating and capital costs do not, so the extra margin falls straight through to every year of the model before discounting. A relatively small change in the assumed gold or copper price can therefore produce an outsized change in net present value.

Does a higher valuation make financing easier?

It helps, but it is not decisive. A larger project value against an unchanged capital cost improves the ratios lenders, streamers and equity investors apply, and can reduce reliance on issuing shares. Project finance is usually underwritten on a bank's own conservative price deck, however, so the study will be stress-tested at lower prices before credit approval.

Does the revision speed up permitting in Brazil?

No. Brazilian environmental licensing is sequential and turns on footprint, water management, and community and regulatory agreements, not on a project's net present value. A higher valuation can make it easier to fund the studies and mitigation work licensing requires, and it raises the financial cost of delay, but it does not shorten the process.

Sources

• Meridian’s Cabaçal value doubles on higher prices — Northern Miner